Workshop Summary

“INVESTIGATING ‘HIDER THEORY’”

SEE: Agenda | Artwork | Participants | Sponsors

Welcome and Introduction
Mr. Jeff Cares, Alidade Incorporated
An Exploration of Zig-zagging
Dr. Brian McCue, Center for Naval Analyses
Hider Theory Talking Points
Dr. Ralph Klingbeil, Naval Undersea Warfare Center
Investigating Terrorist and Smuggling Games
Dr. Jim Taylor, Naval Postgraduate School
An Operational Perspective of Smuggling Tactics
CAPT Ivan Luke, USCG, Naval War College
An Operational Perspective of Submarine Evasion Operations
CDR Dale Sykora, USN, former Commanding Officer, USS DALLAS (SSN 700)
Discussion Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD)
Discussion Group 2: ASW and Military Examples
Final Summary

Search Theory was developed when operators and academics collaborated to apply mathematics to a very tangible task: to find a militarily important object in the quickest, best way possible. As Search Theory matured, two main types of professionals emerged: analysts who work directly with operators to solve pressing operational search problems and academics that work to develop new mathematical results. These two groups have increasingly diverged since their early practical successes. While the Operations Research Analysts continue to ply their trade with a toolbox of practical techniques among tactically minded decision makers, the academics have gravitated to interesting but extraordinarily abstract results in complex multivariate mathematics.

To bring these two groups together, the “New Horizons in Search Theory Workshop” first convened in 2000 and has met annual since. The topics discussed at the first meeting included the potential intersection of classic military (Koopman) search with the new techniques for searching complex problem sets. Recognizing that Koopman search formulations were heavily influenced by the state of mathematics and computational power in World War II, the second workshop investigated what Search Theory would look like if it were invented using today’s mathematics and computational resources. The third workshop explored two new classes of search problem: networked search and search in networks. The results from each of these sessions can be found at www.alidade.net.

As has become the custom, participants in the last workshop collectively decided on the topic for this year. This year’s topic concerns a problem that has grown in importance as weapons inspectors have so far failed to local a trove of Weapons in Mass Destruction in Iraq, Osama bin Ladin remains (perhaps literally) underground, and militaries worldwide continue to explore the use of distributed forces and cover, concealment and deception to counter U.S. sensor advantages. These are examples of the obverse of most search problems: strategies and techniques not to find something, but to keep something from being found.

The literature of “Hider Theory” is relatively sparse compared to the literature of search from the perspective of the searcher – reflecting an additional custom at the workshop of avoiding well-trod paths. Of course, the same questions we have been asking for the last three workshops with respect to Search Theory are quite applicable to Hider Theory, providing an excellent opportunity for our community