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Red Move 2
Previous Move - ReCap
Summary
of Strategy
- Denial
& Deception, Capability demonstration, regional cooperative
engagement, clandestine IO
Expectations
v. Outcomes
- They
will focus on specific military items, they did
- Window
of mitigated risk for out of area, it worked
- Blue
internal political friction over results, it worked
Assessment
of success
- Yes,
Red is asymmetrically forcing blue to spend $$
Move Brief - Objective
- Ensure
passive C2 robustness to endure Precision strike
- Feed
info to Blue ISR to establish confidence, then feed false
- Engineered
“Intel failures” will hopefully lead to “I told
you so!”
- Continue
propaganda efforts to force Blue to question strategy, induce
disillusionment in blue, make them spend too much money while
perceiving too little gain for large investment
- Continue
to build regional partnerships, managing perceptions to not appear
hegemonic, nor too paranoid/antagonistic
- Play
on Blue’s concern over ambiguity of our intentions/expenditures
Move Brief - Actions
Continue
strategy with what we perceive as our previous successes
- Expand
D&D effort to ensure C2 between nodes
- As
maritime culture grows, start developing new TTP
- Coalition
exercises around anti-logistics
Focus
on clandestine engineering of “Intel failure” with
linked media exploitation plan and “defensive counter-counter-PSYOP”
Claim
illegal/invasive planting of collection sensors
In
tit-for-tat competition for ties to orange, purple, expose humanitarian
issues that would make Blue unwilling to stay
- Possibly
also a Blue internal issues caused by e.g. brown somehow?
Show
adverse effects to neighbors of cooperating with Blue
- “They
are spying on you while they are here claiming to help you”
Fabricate
the illusion of instability amongst purple/orange/brown,
- Step
in to provide stability, offer to be Blues proxy while painting
it as their fault to the other countries
Try
to establish a base in region with one of the “friendlies”
Move Brief – Expected Response
- Blue
will continue to obsess over why they can’t find our big
black project
- Blue
will attempt to counter engagement, but we have planne dfor that
and their efforts will backfire
Minority Opinions
- Ethical,
legal, discussions, international law, internet, private-publicly
owned media
- Don’t
paint neighbors as adverse human rights
- Don’t
wait, move to foment civil war locally
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