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Welcome
Jeff Cares and John Dickmann
Alidade, Inc.
Purpose
- How
does foregone legacy investment
affect future strategic positions?
- Is
it possible to ‘lock-out’ the
strategies, technologies or operational concepts of an opponent?
- How
tightly coupled are strategies, technologies and operational
concepts of two opponents?
- What
are the best Capital Time Constants for Information Age
competition?
- What
are the high leverage aspects
of co-evolutionary competition in an information age context (cultural
factors, technology/systems integration infrastructure, innovation,
etc.)?
Why Game?
- Multiple
actors affect outcome
- Multiple
perspectives of actors affect outcome
- Indeterminate
information conditions
- Who
knows what, when and how
- Need
for doctrine in competitive situations
- Involve
decision makers in
the analysis
- Improve
DM’s appreciation of the situation and possible consequences
- Reduce
constraints on sound decision
The Power of Gaming
“The
secret of its great power lies in the existence of the enemy, a live,
vigorous enemy in the next room waiting feverishly to take advantage
of any of our mistakes, ever ready to puncture any visionary scheme,
to haul us down to earth…”
--CAPT
McCarty Little, 1912
Method
- Two-sided,
modified seminar
- Five
moves (moves = 10 years)
- Five
year lag
- Long
term competition
- “Strategic”
Investment
- Red/Blue/Green
constrained only by game objectives
- Final
Session in plenary
Rules - Blue
- Defense
Budget is $300 billion/year
- Blue
may not significantly alter
their long-term strategy during the game.
- During
Blue’s Move 1, Blue will enjoy a $300 billion defense
budget windfall and must decide how to spend it.
- The
menu will provide assessments of
the cost, time, risk and covertness associated with developing
these capabilities.
- The
budget for subsequent moves will revert to $300 billion/year
Rules - Red
- Defense
Budget is $30 billion/year
- Red
may not significantly alter their long-term strategy during
the game.
- During
Red’s Move 1, the Red government will give the Red Ministry
of Defense $30 billion to spend over ten years as a response
to Blue’s Move 1.
- The
menu will provide assessments of the cost, time, risk and
covertness associated with developing these capabilities.
- The
budget for subsequent moves will revert to $50 billion /year
Three Golden Rules
- Don’t
Fight the Scenario-- “No fighting in the war room!”
- Watch
the clock
- It’s
in the Game Book
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